• Large holders free-riding security
• No more mempool APIs only
• All fees are out of band
• Mining wars between nation-states
• Constant reorgs
• Forks (not consensus change)
• Race to the bottom between miners sending each other long to validate blocks
• No more hashrate
• SPV mining
• Fail to converge
• “Gap games” + coin hopping
• Chain halts: miners know they will get reorged out, give up mining
• Collapse of the galactic economy
• Use all the world’s energy
• Quantum computers may make hashrate not linear with power

Not gonna consider bugs such as timewarp or extreme validation times.

Tail Emission

• The emission can’t be linear as it’s logarithmic eventually.
• What you want is a fixed inflation as a percentage of the supply.
• Alternative solution: demurrage (the value of coin decreases over time).

Demand for Block Space

• Possibility: There may be no demand for block space anymore.
• Observation: There seems to be a baseline demand for storing garbage.

Decreasing Purchasing Power

• Scenario: Purchasing power decreases significantly but smoothly.
  • In 100 years, 1 BTC might only buy a bottle of water.
• Consensus in the group: It’s OK if people don’t want to use Bitcoin anymore.
  • Purchasing power of BTC decreases, or block space demand diminishes
  • If it’s a shock and not gradual it would be a pretty bad outcome for holders.

Proof of IDLE

• Check the paper.

ETF Scaling

• Question: What if people don’t have demand for block space anymore?
• Discussion: Is it a bad outcome?

Bitcoin for Settlement Between Countries

• Hypothesis: Countries that don’t trust each other might use Bitcoin for settlement.
• Counterpoint: They might as well use the BIS.
  • BIS is trusted, but there is alwayss the threat of war which keeps them honest.
  • Question: Is Bitcoin really useful for this use case?

• Avoid MEV / APIs:
  • APIs are not inherently bad but may indicate systemic issues.
  • Ethereum has transitioned to being "all APIs" with no mempool anymore.
• Keep Open Source / Verifiability.
• Big Consensus Changes:
  • Can we transition to PoS?
    • Some believe PoS isn’t interesting; if trusting a third party is necessary, a transparently trusted system might suffice.
• Incentives Against Custodians:
  • “Just ban Bitcoin :)”

• Two generations, ~100 years.